"Winter Fall" - December 17, 2021

A place to discuss the weekly Wall Street Journal Crossword Puzzle Contest, starting every Thursday around 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. Please do not post any answers or hints before the contest deadline which is midnight Sunday Eastern time.
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LadyBird
Posts: 995
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:20 pm
Location: Chicagoland

#201

Post by LadyBird »

ky-mike wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 11:57 am
Chantellebeal wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:43 am
Joe Ross wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:53 am

HERE you go!
Thanks! I am just wondering about the odds of ever winning a mug.....
Better than the odds of winning the Powerball. Think about that when you see how few on here have a mug and you are tempted to buy that Powerball ticket.
Says the person with THREE!!! mugs in his profile pic. ;)
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DaveKennison
Posts: 243
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:28 pm

#202

Post by DaveKennison »

Okay, so … my patience is at an end! Where can I custom-order a mug of my own danged design?

Hmmm. Suitable inscription. Must consider. Crossword Whiz? Master Cruciverbalist? Good Sport of the Year? Waited Long Enough?

Maybe we could bring the cost down with a bulk order. Who’s with me in this enterprise?

😜😜😜
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Anita
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:55 am

#203

Post by Anita »

You forgot me! I posted onshore late Thursday evening. Did the uncertainty in my post throw you off? I know I've got the right answer, but couldn't find one thing.

Bob cruise director wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 11:57 am Good Saturday morning muggles

another fun challenge from Mr. Gaffney.

A warm welcome to our newest muggle - csbysam1. Great to have more muggles

So far we have 11 keeping Isaac company on the ship and 159 on the shore.

On the ship are:

NuYear68
Kas
SewYoung
pjc
barney
FatJack
SReh26
relic (and Maggie)
Deb
femullen
Scott L

And on the shore are

oldjudge
docison
RPardoe
Al
joe
Wendy
Beth A
Kay
Peter
Meg
benchen71
streroto
BEACHEDWHALE
MikeM000
sanmilton
Cap'n Rick
stmv
C=64
Tom Wi
hoover
Tom S
John77
Heidi
Jace54
Toby
Barbara K
DrTom
ladybird
Chris
HeadinHome
MajorDomoTom
ajk
mntlblok
RobM
escapeartist
Andrew B
copperriver
Laura
Scott M
Joe R
darth
Beth T
woozy
boharr
M and M
ky-mike
Zagman49
Hammertime
BrennerTJ
Homer
Commodore
Les
Georgeall
MatthewL
Tomgebhard
GTIJohnny
LittleGood
Mike H
TeaJenny
dplass
Jean
Cindy
Tina
Moi
dudeski
TeamDoubleTow
Miki
Jeremy
mbryant
cbarbee
whimsy
CPJohnson
ImOnToo
Bill
Omnibus
Shirley
Dave C
Lube On
Dow Jones
meowmiao71
Lacangah
MaineMarge
otlaolap
higgysue
Ron
EmilyW
Jack
ReB
NDStegs
Laurab
rjy
Zach
dk letter
RDaleHall
Schmeel
lbray
Josh
b4alltime
JennyByrd
Flying_Burrito
DCBilly
Steveb
Rita and George
Guy L
Guffman
CAe39
mattythewsjpuzzler
David K
Beth C
D B Miller
Bonnibel
Plymouth Rock
ADS
Hidden in 3D
RichA2
cinny
Henry Paul
SamanthaA
joequavis
David Wi
Barry
Lee-Ann
SusieG
James D
czeemuggle
joes
Cindy N
Katiedid
michaelm
auee89
hayburner
Jackie88
PQ63
Ergcat
ALS
Chantellebeal
Susan G
Janet
Harbo
mrmd
bread-girl
patpatchica
Ben B and son
Debbie
Richard
Glorfindel
Lyman
Hamrock
BreeZynCO
mlvilv
eagle1279
csbysam1
drbockel2
HunterX
regfish
Glyn
Prozach
Bill Swerski 13
samandcam


Good luck to all and stay safe, especially if you are in the area with tornados
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Dannyvee
Posts: 548
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:39 am
Location: Jamaica Plain, MA

#204

Post by Dannyvee »

Ashore! Cool puzzle
I can be found in Sheridan, NY, veejaying. (8)
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802puzzler
Posts: 178
Joined: Fri May 08, 2020 7:21 pm

#205

Post by 802puzzler »

Still on the boat ;-)
A few partial mechanisms, but not even close to 9 letters...
Hoping I'll have post enlightenment.
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Bob cruise director
Cruise Director
Posts: 5024
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:38 pm
Location: Any golf course within 500 miles of Littleton MA

#206

Post by Bob cruise director »

Anita wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:45 pm You forgot me! I posted onshore late Thursday evening. Did the uncertainty in my post throw you off? I know I've got the right answer, but couldn't find one thing.

@Anita Sorry - I just missed you in the crowd. :oops:
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director
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ship4u
Posts: 1221
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:00 am
Location: At Wit's End, Shaker Heights, Ohio
Contact:
Contact ship4u

#207

Post by ship4u »

On shore, thanks to a muggles life line. For us 30 acrossers, this one was very difficult. Whatever happened to the nice friendly ones like back in 2015 when VW was right on the grid for you to see?
Last edited by ship4u on Sun Dec 19, 2021 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
Don & Cynthia

We are always happy to get to know other muggles and help in any way! PM's are always welcome. The next best thing to winning a mug is helping a fellow muggle win a mug!
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Streroto
Posts: 952
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Newtown Square, PA

#208

Post by Streroto »

Apologies if somebody has already posted this, but for those on the beach and looking for something to do, check out Mike’s WSJ Saturday, which has a nice little meta and is wildly clever. If you want to make it a little more fun, ignore the long clue with a prescriptive hint.

Stay well all!
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DannyCincinnnati
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:26 pm

#209

Post by DannyCincinnnati »

Late start this week, but safely on shore. Happy holidays all!
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jwilkerson
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:59 pm

#210

Post by jwilkerson »

New to the forum. Definitely needing a nudge on this one. I'm quite certain I've made the correct first moves but now I'm finding no fruit.

Edit: Nudge received and now on shore!
Last edited by jwilkerson on Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Eric Porter
Posts: 619
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 2:19 am
Location: Nashville, TN

#211

Post by Eric Porter »

On shore.

I got a late start because I moved to Nashville from Bellevue WA last week.

My first idea was very slightly off, but I figured that out and got the answer. After that, DrTom helped me figure out that I'd made a mistake in my grid.
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Trey
Posts: 224
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:27 pm
Location: Kansas City, MO

#212

Post by Trey »

Marion and I are safely on shore and in the sand............she mostly rowed and I rode! Regardless, we are relaxing again! Looking for the china....
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rosiegirl
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2020 4:26 pm

#213

Post by rosiegirl »

Ashore! Got the meta, but had to do some backsolving to come up with the answer. Nice to be on shore with one day to spare!
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hoover
Posts: 3176
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:26 pm
Location: at the intersection of grits and breakfast tacos

#214

Post by hoover »

Bob cruise director wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:03 pm
Chantellebeal wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:43 am
Joe Ross wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:53 am

HERE you go!
Thanks! I am just wondering about the odds of ever winning a mug.....
@Chantellebeal Your odds are better than winning the lottery but don't plan on having a mug for the holidays. And they are not getting better because the WSJ has more submissions. From the beginning of the contests the average number of correct answers is 992. Over the past 52 weeks, the average number of correct answers is 1181.

So ballpark, your odds are about 1 in 1000. Given that there are 52 contests in a year, that means that might win a mug every 20 years (not mathematically rigorous but good enough)
More rigorously, assuming that you solve the meta every week, that the probability is 999/1000 that you will not win the mug in a week given that you have solved the meta, and that winners are chosen randomly, and accounting for 52 weeks in a year, then the probability is (999/1000)^52 or about 0.949 that you will not win the mug in a year, so you have about a 5% chance of winning the mug in a given year if you solve all the metas that year.

You have a 50% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 693 weeks (13+ years).
You have a 65% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 1040 weeks (20ish years).
You have a 95% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 2995 weeks (57+ years).

Can we agree that we're here for the company?
I don't have anything clever to say, but if I did, it would go here.
Eli
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ZooAnimalsOnWheels
Posts: 391
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:02 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

#215

Post by ZooAnimalsOnWheels »

Home for the holidays, and my brother and I paddled this one to shore. I'll have a Lakewood Brewing Temptress to ward off the chill.
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PHOFER
Posts: 162
Joined: Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:20 pm

#216

Post by PHOFER »

On shore. Very Gaffney. Moscow mule please!
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cpelster
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:08 pm
Location: Lakewood, WA

#217

Post by cpelster »

Ashore! Took me a little bit to get the first step. Same with second step. Had to go through my list of mechanisms then found one that worked. Yay me!
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cpelster
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:08 pm
Location: Lakewood, WA

#218

Post by cpelster »

Eric Porter wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:14 pm On shore.

I got a late start because I moved to Nashville from Bellevue WA last week.

My first idea was very slightly off, but I figured that out and got the answer. After that, DrTom helped me figure out that I'd made a mistake in my grid.
Welcome to the Pacific Northwest! Beautiful weather today…LOL!
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cpelster
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:08 pm
Location: Lakewood, WA

#219

Post by cpelster »

cpelster wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:54 pm
Eric Porter wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:14 pm On shore.

I got a late start because I moved to Nashville from Bellevue WA last week.

My first idea was very slightly off, but I figured that out and got the answer. After that, DrTom helped me figure out that I'd made a mistake in my grid.
Welcome to the Pacific Northwest! Beautiful weather today…LOL!
Oh shoot! You moved the other direction!
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sphorning
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Steamboat Springs, CO

#220

Post by sphorning »

I'm still chatting up Isaac. I have part 1 done of the meta, but stuck on part 2. Confused by the puzzle title. Anyone want to offer help?
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