"I Almost Gave Away The Ending" December 2, 2022

[Al Laubenstein]

Thanks for hosting, Don, and to all of the nudgers. Safely ashore.

[Susan Goldberg]

On shore! And on the way to see Music Man in NYC!

[FatJack]

Ashore! After chasing fuzzy rabbits all afternoon, the key, which had been sort of floating around in my periphery for a while, hit me, BAM! Guinness just won't due today. An IPA and some Jefferson Airplane heading my way.

[minimuggle]

On shore! And on the way to see Music Man in NYC!

I've seen Music Man twice. It is the best show I have ever seen. ENJOY!!!!! He auctions items off at the end of the show for charity and the other night Nicole Kidman was in the audience and paid $100,000 for the hat he wears in the show.

[MikeyG]

On shore!
Relatively easy swim.
It might be fun to model the solving process as a Markov Chain:
A solver alternates between working on the meta and doing burpees to relax. Every minute, a solver decides what activity to engage in for the next minute . After a minute of puzzling, he/she will puzzle for another minute 75% of the time. After a minute of burpees, he/she will do burpees for another minute 50% of the time.
Unfortunately, both puzzling and doing burpees are risky businesses. When you do burpees for a minute, the probability you will bust your gut is 25%. On the other hand, puzzling for a minute will result in being brain fried with probability 5%. Either brain fried or gut busted is a medical condition that prohibits further activity. What fate will befall our intrepid solver in the long run?
Define the following states:
a: working on meta
b: doing burpees
c: brain fried
d: busted gut
We are given probabilities Paa = 0.75, Pbb = 0.50, Pac = 0.05, Pbd = 0.25, Pcc = 1 and Pdd = 1.
Queries:
What is the probability that the intrepid solver ends up eventually with a busted gut, as opposed to ending up brain fried?
How long will it take, on average before the solver is out of commission with either a busted gut or a fried brain?

I'm happy I understood most of this! Time to determine what the steady state is!

[Relic]

I must be alone at sea....sheesh

I'm still at the bar, so you are not alone. I'll be here all night as I have some other things I need to do. This will have to wait until tomorrow.

[Jackie J]

I’m on shore. Time for a Bombay Sapphire martini to finish off a great day. I raise my glass to all my fellow Mugglers. Cheers to all

[OliviaL]

After a bit of a hiatus due to lack of cell service while camping, I’m back and on shore

Pictured: our favorite camping spot in Argentina!

[Colin]

Time for an Old Speckled Hen, a nice British Ale that was named after an MG, my first sport car!

100% with you on the Old Speckled Hen, one of the best imports here in the US! Fair few MGs imported too over the years, but back in the day in Blighty, my first sporty ride was a Triumph Vitesse - straight 6-cyl 2-door 4-seater that was as pretty nippy for a ‘saloon car’ and left a few MG Midgets standing. MGBs gave me a better run for my money! Spent way too many Sunday afternoons sitting on the front wheel of the Vitesse with the wrap-around hood up, trying to tune the twin Webers!
Still asea by the way… too much time spent reminiscing!

[PBR]

Doggy Paddled for 30 hours all the way to shore after cannonballing off the cruise ship in record time. Serves me right for solving on paper (always on my phone). I didn’t catch the meta until very very very closely reviewing the entire puzzle. I am an idiot, but an idiot on the beach!

[Sleepy]

Put the puzzle down long enough to fly from Denver to New Orleans. Looked again after checking into hotel, and 15 minutes later, On Shore! This one leaves no doubt. Nice puzzle! A Malbec for me

[HunterX]

Reporting on shore. Nice puzzle!

Haven't read any comments yet. Will have to catch up tomorrow. Curious what topics are hot this week...

[rexthree]

on shore. i enjoyed this one.

[cheekumbaldy]

On shore, after I almost gave up. I was so sure it was something else and followed that rabbit as far as humanly possible. Then I looked again, and there it was. Really cool one this week.

[escapeartist]

Still on the ship. Isaac appears distracted and is ignoring me.

Cruise ladies are smothering Isaac tonight!

[DrTom]

Nothing, nothing, nothing...hey that's odd, and that's odd too, nope can't be odd three times in a row! Is that sand I fell on my feet?

Ashore and very pleased with myself even if it is page 9.

[JeanneC]

Came ashore Thursday night after thinking I wouldn’t solve. Amazing how one can go from nothing to something in an instant.
Really was “at sea” last week. Sat at one of the many bars trying to figure out last week’s meta. (Hubby memorialized with a photo I am too embarrassed to share. No, I never solved.)

At one point, I was sorely tempted to walk into the card room and yell “Any muggles here?”

[Grover]

Ashore! Clever tricks as usual.

[DrTom]

After a bit of a hiatus due to lack of cell service while camping, I’m back and on shore

Pictured: our favorite camping spot in Argentina!

Wow, that is spectacular with two spectacs!! Argentina eh, I thought sure it was the American West. Now do you drive your SUV all the way to Argentina to camp? THAT is dedication.

[Kris Zacharias]

On shore. I often forget two particular strategies with the result of frequent failures to find the meta. Tried one of these which led immediately to a rabbit hole. But the second strategy was successful. Happy to have tomorrow free, the last day of a visit to meet our seventh grandchild. No agonizing over the puzzle at nap time!