"Seeking Answers" - October 8, 2021

[JAQT]

On shore -- I think. I'm 100% sure that I'm at least half right. Does that mean that I'm only 50% of the way there?

I guess that's another one of those questions for the ages.

[mntlblok]

Has anyone ever figured out what the odds are of winning the Holy Grail if one submits the correct answer?

Has anyone figured the odds? Here in nerd central? Of course we have!

The odds of winning any particular week depend on the number of entries. The puzzle started in the September of 2015, but I only have data going back to April 29, 2016, so based on that...

For the September 10, 2021 puzzle, "Dude, Where's My Car", answer TOYOTA, which had the highest number of correct submissions ever, the odds were 1 in 4463 or ~0.02%

The lowest number of correct submissions ever was on March 1, 2019, "Puzzle People", answer YMA SUMAC. The odds that week were 1 in 94 or ~1.06%

Both of those cases are quite unusual. An average week has ~1000 correct solvers and so the odds of winning are ~0.1%

If you submitted the correct answer every week since the start of the data, your odds of winning at least once were 37.18%

If you submitted correctly every week in 2020, your odds were 6.13%

Another fun way to look at it is to pretend you earn the appropriate fraction of a much each week you submit a correct answer and add them up to see how close you are to getting a whole mug. @xivxav invented this and posted a spreadsheet you can use here viewtopic.php?f=18&t=279

Thinkin I might continue submittin, *anyway*.

[RussHiggins]

Finally ashore after a long swim out to sea. When all else fails, read the instructions.

[BarbaraK]

I got the meta but I can't figure out the pageant references. Can someone give me a nudge on that?

There was a puzzle several years ago that a lot of people thought they had but missed a step. Read all about it here viewtopic.php?f=18&t=36

[MajordomoTom]

still on the ship with this one.

Gaffney's "Further Diminishment", however, was a week 1 level puzzle.

[Bob cruise director]

Has anyone ever figured out what the odds are of winning the Holy Grail if one submits the correct answer?

Has anyone figured the odds? Here in nerd central? Of course we have!

The odds of winning any particular week depend on the number of entries. The puzzle started in the September of 2015, but I only have data going back to April 29, 2016, so based on that...

For the September 10, 2021 puzzle, "Dude, Where's My Car", answer TOYOTA, which had the highest number of correct submissions ever, the odds were 1 in 4463 or ~0.02%

The lowest number of correct submissions ever was on March 1, 2019, "Puzzle People", answer YMA SUMAC. The odds that week were 1 in 94 or ~1.06%

Both of those cases are quite unusual. An average week has ~1000 correct solvers and so the odds of winning are ~0.1%

If you submitted the correct answer every week since the start of the data, your odds of winning at least once were 37.18%

If you submitted correctly every week in 2020, your odds were 6.13%

Another fun way to look at it is to pretend you earn the appropriate fraction of a much each week you submit a correct answer and add them up to see how close you are to getting a whole mug. @xivxav invented this and posted a spreadsheet you can use here viewtopic.php?f=18&t=279

@BarbaraK @ship4u Think of it like running the Boston Marathon on Monday (starting in Whimsy's front yard). There are 20,000 runners and only a half a dozen have any chance of winning. Why do the rest run? For enjoyment, for their own satisfaction, for their own personal bests and because they are crazy like we are.

[jenirvin]

Quick trip to the beach once I got to start the puzzle. Hope everyone enjoys the rest of the weekend!

[MatthewB]

On shore... Spent too much time exploring one particular rabbit hole... Started all over and, voila... on the beach. Should be quite a crowd.

[rosiegirl]

On shore...I think! Will wait to submit until tomorrow when I have a chance to look at the puzzle one more time with fresh eyes.

[mrmd]

In need of a nudge if someone would kindly oblige! Happy to share thinking so far….

[LivinaDogsLife]

On shore when the answer jumped off the page at me in my first glance after setting it down for a day.

[DianeA]

Count me as on the boat (where i've been for 3 weeks straight). I've been working this since Thursday evening. I will submit my answer later today, but i'm not 100% on it. I like part of it, but the other is iffy. Hoping i get lucky!

[PHOFER]

Ashore after leisurely swim. Are we starting a cycle of easier to harder every month like other meta puzzles we know of?

[mitchel674]

On shore but with a pretty soft answer.

Submitting.

[littlegreycells]

I think I'm finally on shore! But given that I've missed the last couple weeks, I'd love a confirmation!

[SReh26]

I think I’m on shore, but I didn’t feel that click

Update: ashore with a nudge from the good DrTom, with an iced latte with Baileys!

[JJD]

I’m up to 4 very plausible variations for an answer. I don’t know how you all picked out just one. I hear a subtle click with one, so I guess I’ll submit that.

[Billy M]

I’m up to 4 very plausible variations for an answer. I don’t know how you all picked out just one. I hear a subtle click with one, so I guess I’ll submit that.

Similar boat over here. Expecting more of a click

[Barney]

Count me as on the boat (where i've been for 3 weeks straight). I've been working this since Thursday evening. I will submit my answer later today, but i'm not 100% on it. I like part of it, but the other is iffy. Hoping i get lucky!

Still stuck where I’m stuck.

And I got last week’s; all you had to do was (find the way to) follow the directions.

[JJD]

I’m up to 4 very plausible variations for an answer. I don’t know how you all picked out just one. I hear a subtle click with one, so I guess I’ll submit that.

Similar boat over here. Expecting more of a click

For the record, my hunch was correct. ALL of my plausible answers were wrong.