Re: "Winter Fall" - December 17, 2021
Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:34 pm
On shore! Easiest solve I've had in a long time. The answer was just as fun as the mechanism!
On shore.
Clever mechanism. Enjoyed this one.
A place to discuss the WSJ Weekly Crossword Contest and other "meta"-style crosswords
https://www.xword-muggles.com/
Tell us what that was on Monday. I have the answer, but also an unresolved question.Eric Porter wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:14 pm On shore.
I got a late start because I moved to Nashville from Bellevue WA last week.
My first idea was very slightly off, but I figured that out and got the answer. After that, DrTom helped me figure out that I'd made a mistake in my grid.
So you are saying I have a chance?hoover wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:55 pmMore rigorously, assuming that you solve the meta every week, that the probability is 999/1000 that you will not win the mug in a week given that you have solved the meta, and that winners are chosen randomly, and accounting for 52 weeks in a year, then the probability is (999/1000)^52 or about 0.949 that you will not win the mug in a year, so you have about a 5% chance of winning the mug in a given year if you solve all the metas that year.Bob cruise director wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:03 pm@Chantellebeal Your odds are better than winning the lottery but don't plan on having a mug for the holidays. And they are not getting better because the WSJ has more submissions. From the beginning of the contests the average number of correct answers is 992. Over the past 52 weeks, the average number of correct answers is 1181.Chantellebeal wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:43 am
Thanks! I am just wondering about the odds of ever winning a mug.....
So ballpark, your odds are about 1 in 1000. Given that there are 52 contests in a year, that means that might win a mug every 20 years (not mathematically rigorous but good enough)
You have a 50% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 693 weeks (13+ years).
You have a 65% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 1040 weeks (20ish years).
You have a 95% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 2995 weeks (57+ years).
Can we agree that we're here for the company?
Naw, we're here for the PAGEANTry!hoover wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:55 pmMore rigorously, assuming that you solve the meta every week, that the probability is 999/1000 that you will not win the mug in a week given that you have solved the meta, and that winners are chosen randomly, and accounting for 52 weeks in a year, then the probability is (999/1000)^52 or about 0.949 that you will not win the mug in a year, so you have about a 5% chance of winning the mug in a given year if you solve all the metas that year.Bob cruise director wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:03 pm@Chantellebeal Your odds are better than winning the lottery but don't plan on having a mug for the holidays. And they are not getting better because the WSJ has more submissions. From the beginning of the contests the average number of correct answers is 992. Over the past 52 weeks, the average number of correct answers is 1181.Chantellebeal wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:43 am
Thanks! I am just wondering about the odds of ever winning a mug.....
So ballpark, your odds are about 1 in 1000. Given that there are 52 contests in a year, that means that might win a mug every 20 years (not mathematically rigorous but good enough)
You have a 50% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 693 weeks (13+ years).
You have a 65% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 1040 weeks (20ish years).
You have a 95% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 2995 weeks (57+ years).
Can we agree that we're here for the company?