Talk about dinosaurs! I probably have one of those around here!DrTom wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:25 pm OH, and let me pull a "Wendy" here, even though this is intended for hcbirker! Look what I found when I was rumaging to find my "Wind Mitigation" documents for renewing my home insurance! No disk in it, and I obviously saved it because it was a good time to put things in (I'm a packrat unfortunately - product of a post war family in NE Pennsylvania) but there it was, a piece of online history:
AOL small.jpg
"Pardon My English" - June 4, 2021
- hcbirker
- Posts: 2057
- Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:24 pm
- Location: Studio City, CA
Heidi
- Henry Paul
- Posts: 153
- Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:13 pm
- Location: Mountain View, CA
20A Isaac! Let me pull up my usual chair and stare at all those friendly folks basking on the beach.
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- Joined: Tue May 25, 2021 1:55 pm
This is correct, and it would take about 88 1/2 years to have a 99% chance of having won the mug. This, of course, assumes a streak of 4,603 correct answers and a consistent 1/1000 chance of winning.DBMiller wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:38 pmClose. With those constraints, .999 chance that you are not chosen each week. .999 ^ (13*52) = .508 so not quite there yet. Need another 17 weeks to just push over the mark.mheberlingx100 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:15 pmMy calculation was that if I played for 13 years, I would have a 50% chance of winning the mug at least once. That assumes that I got the right answer every week and there were 1,000 correct entries every week.Joe Ross wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:53 pm
You'll find @zach & others with better spreadsheets, charts, & stats. We have some serious data savants in this club!
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- Location: Atlanta, GA
I was told there would be no math.zach wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:07 pmThis is correct, and it would take about 88 1/2 years to have a 99% chance of having won the mug. This, of course, assumes a streak of 4,603 correct answers and a consistent 1/1000 chance of winning.DBMiller wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:38 pmClose. With those constraints, .999 chance that you are not chosen each week. .999 ^ (13*52) = .508 so not quite there yet. Need another 17 weeks to just push over the mark.mheberlingx100 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:15 pm
My calculation was that if I played for 13 years, I would have a 50% chance of winning the mug at least once. That assumes that I got the right answer every week and there were 1,000 correct entries every week.
Matthew
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- Posts: 173
- Joined: Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:32 pm
Found the grid to be easy enough but the meta solve has eluded me so far. Hopefully I can figure it out this weekend...
- mheberlingx100
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:39 am
Another 1/3 of a year?? Oh man, that makes me want to give up!DBMiller wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:38 pmClose. With those constraints, .999 chance that you are not chosen each week. .999 ^ (13*52) = .508 so not quite there yet. Need another 17 weeks to just push over the mark.mheberlingx100 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:15 pmMy calculation was that if I played for 13 years, I would have a 50% chance of winning the mug at least once. That assumes that I got the right answer every week and there were 1,000 correct entries every week.Joe Ross wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:53 pm
You'll find @zach & others with better spreadsheets, charts, & stats. We have some serious data savants in this club!
- Patty
- Posts: 84
- Joined: Sat May 11, 2019 12:33 pm
- Location: Basel
Ooooh! It wasn’t easy but we are on the beach. It was team effort. Always happy to bring family along for the solve
- SusieG
- Posts: 431
- Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:20 pm
- Location: Arkansas
Just back from vacation...still haven’t looked at last week’s puzzle (shhhh, I’m going to solve it without spoilers), but I’m ashore with this week’s puzzle. Still missing 3 letters, but I am calling it solved.
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- Posts: 259
- Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:12 pm
Naps are very helpful things. Safely ashore on this hot, late Spring day. Ready to cool off at the Tiki bar!
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- Posts: 149
- Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:59 pm
Ashore. Like others, I had an issue with the last 25%, but I back-solved, and figured it out. And like others, I found that having a certain particular skill was quite helpful.
ALS
ALS
- PeterLeea1a
- Posts: 138
- Joined: Thu May 09, 2019 5:49 pm
- FirstMax
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:33 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
On shore. Like others, I spent more time back solving than solving, but this not an easy meta. I predict a lot of tears and questioning of life choices this weekend.
- FirstMax
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:33 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
I was reading Marilyn vos Savant decades ago in Parade magazine and I thought she said your chance of winning the lottery even if you play the same numbers is always the same since the game resets every time. Being drunk right now, I think your chance of winning the mug every week would be 1/1000 or .001 regardless of how much you play.mheberlingx100 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:35 pmAnother 1/3 of a year?? Oh man, that makes me want to give up!DBMiller wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:38 pmClose. With those constraints, .999 chance that you are not chosen each week. .999 ^ (13*52) = .508 so not quite there yet. Need another 17 weeks to just push over the mark.mheberlingx100 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:15 pm
My calculation was that if I played for 13 years, I would have a 50% chance of winning the mug at least once. That assumes that I got the right answer every week and there were 1,000 correct entries every week.
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- Posts: 173
- Joined: Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:32 pm
Solved! I had to make a slight adjustment while heading down the rabbit hole. Some chardonnay, please! Good luck Muggles.
- mheberlingx100
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:39 am
Each individual game would have that probability. But that is not the same as the probability of the occurrence with multiple games.FirstMax wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:45 pmI was reading Marilyn vos Savant decades ago in Parade magazine and I thought she said your chance of winning the lottery even if you play the same numbers is always the same since the game resets every time. Being drunk right now, I think your chance of winning the mug every week would be 1/1000 or .001 regardless of how much you play.mheberlingx100 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:35 pmAnother 1/3 of a year?? Oh man, that makes me want to give up!
Think of it this way. If you flip a fair coin, you will have a 50% chance of it coming up heads. But if you flip the coin 10 times, the odds are far greater that you will come up with heads at least once. That probability is 1 - (.5)^10, or 99.9% probability that there will be at least one head in 10 flips.
Any statisticians out there, feel free to correct.
- TheCatt
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:53 pm
At the bar. Having a birthday drink. We are stuck. We had a rabbit hole, but it either goes nowhere, or somewhere we cannot see. Hints appreciated.
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On shore.
I got us to the 50 yard line and my solving buddy got the TD. HEY! 2 heads are better than one, especially in the middle of the night when looking for that loo-cid moment. ( love this perfect descriptive Muggle
Inspiration).
I got us to the 50 yard line and my solving buddy got the TD. HEY! 2 heads are better than one, especially in the middle of the night when looking for that loo-cid moment. ( love this perfect descriptive Muggle
Inspiration).
Last edited by MaineMarge on Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
- C=64
- Posts: 694
- Joined: Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:29 pm
- Location: PDX
Solved, in three phases.
1. Grid done in ~10 minutes on Thursday afternoon, but no progress on meta.
2. Had a flash of inspiration while lounging in the backyard on Friday; figured out the key to the meta mechanism but couldn't work out the numbers.
3. Later on Friday, looked at the puzzle again. "Aha, it's one of those puzzles." Bing bang boom.
1. Grid done in ~10 minutes on Thursday afternoon, but no progress on meta.
2. Had a flash of inspiration while lounging in the backyard on Friday; figured out the key to the meta mechanism but couldn't work out the numbers.
3. Later on Friday, looked at the puzzle again. "Aha, it's one of those puzzles." Bing bang boom.
- Horsesense
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 9:14 am
- Location: Sometimes Michigan, Sometimes Texas, but Maine at Heart