"Connect Four" - December 4, 2020

[DrTom]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

[Bob cruise director]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

Can I conclude that attending conferences has driven you to this?

[mitchel674]

Well, I seem to have an obvious answer, but I would consider it more a "pair of things" than a "two-word phrase". Am I overthinking this one?

[hunkra]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

We have a couple local distilleries in my neck of NY, the most popular label by far being Hudson Whiskey NY. Local favorite is the Baby Bourbon, but I am partial to Bright Lights, Big Bourbon. Cheers!

[Jackie88]

On shore!

[DrTom]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

Can I conclude that attending conferences has driven you to this?

Oh, I couldn't drive after all that bourbon....I can tell you that in all good conference.

[DrTom]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

Can I conclude that attending conferences has driven you to this?

Where is that picture Bob - looks like it was out west?

[otlaolap]

Math is not my strong suit, but if we assume that the typical puzzle yields 1000 correct entries, you would need to submit the correct answer about 500 times in order to have a 99% chance of winning at least once. 250 correct entries (5 years) would give you a 75% chance.
...

Given your assumption, the chance of winning each time is .1%. You have to submit 4603 times to get a 99% chance, and 693 submissions to get 50% chance.

I agree with FrankH's numbers. Here are a few more:

win-the-mug.png

To continue this thread, there is a "Micromug Calculator" discussion at forums/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=279. Mike Miller posts two numbers here every week (as far as I have checked): the number of submissions to the contest, and the approximate percent of correct submissions. I believe that these numbers are the basis of the Micromug computation. Some weeks yield a much better chance than others.

In any case, I have been using these number to track my cumulative lifetime chance of having won a mug. At the moment, using my own version of a spreadsheet and assuming that it is correct, it is 0.69%. My lifetime doing this contest is relatively short, though; I have 8 correct for 16 tries. Just discovered this kind of crossword with a trial subscription to the WSJ about three months ago (and am now a subscriber although the crosswords can be had for free).

[EdStrong]

Ashore

[MaineMarge]

That sound of defeat you hear is coming from me. I thought I had given it my best shot but I still don’t have a handle on the meta- long or short. So on to happier thoughts while I continue to mull it over.

Our oldest and most 24A garden backed by the tall cedars you saw earlier being pruned by the delightful 23 year old young man. It looks like the garden has been 56D with great care with a long handled tool.
A homegrown peony forefront.
June 2020

[ImOnToo]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

Blanton's is very smooth. And, the stopper designs are fun to collect.

[LLinNC]

I very rarely get to the meta on Thursday, but I did solve the grid Thursday night. I was too tired to solve the meta, but I picked it back up Friday night, and found the route to the answer. My current streak is now at 3 relatively easy solves. Luckily, I have a couple other metas to struggle with to bring me back to earth. It's early, but not too early, for a little Frangelico in my coffee to celebrate.

Thank you to everyone who wished me well last week. I was able to go back to my empty classroom on Thursday and Zoom teach my second graders with my fancy big electronic board instead of using my daughter's small whiteboard while sitting in a corner of my bedroom as my cats made multiple guest appearances to my students' delight. What a wonderful community we have here!

[Bob cruise director]

Hmmm - lots of Bourbon drinkers here it seems. How is the EH Taylor? That is one I didn't know about since I have only recently been dipping my toe (or rather tongue) into the bourbon pool. So far Buffalo Trace and Weller 12 year (which I miraculously manages to grab a 1.75 L bottle of by being at my local liquor store when they were unloading their order one day) are my mixing and straight (in that order) bourbons of choice. I have tried unsuccessfully to get Eagle Rare or Pappy of course and am about to give up that chase. I've tried Old Forester Single Barrel 90 proof (meh), Maker's Mark (OK), Elijah Craig Small Batch (Nice) as well as the two mentioned above. Is the hunt/chase for the unicorns (Eagle Rare, Eagle Very Rare, Pappy) really worth pursuing? Am I snobbishly overlooking some of the Old Standbys (Four Roses, Jim Beam, Woodford's Reserve, 1792, Old Grandad ????) in my quest?

EDIT: Anyone tried Widow Jane, it gets some good reviews and is available to me. Now granted Jane is my Wife's name so I'm cautious about buying it...

Can I conclude that attending conferences has driven you to this?

Where is that picture Bob - looks like it was out west?

It was at Bryce Canyon at dawn. This covid has put a big crimp in our traveling around. Our 2020 trip to Italy and France was wiped out and 2021 is not looking any better.

[Bob cruise director]

I very rarely get to the meta on Thursday, but I did solve the grid Thursday night. I was too tired to solve the meta, but I picked it back up Friday night, and found the route to the answer. My current streak is now at 3 relatively easy solves. Luckily, I have a couple other metas to struggle with to bring me back to earth. It's early, but not too early, for a little Frangelico in my coffee to celebrate.

Thank you to everyone who wished me well last week. I was able to go back to my empty classroom on Thursday and Zoom teach my second graders with my fancy big electronic board instead of using my daughter's small whiteboard while sitting in a corner of my bedroom as my cats made multiple guest appearances to my students' delight. What a wonderful community we have here!

come to the Tuesday zoom meetings. We have several cats wandering in and out.

Glad you are getting back to normal

[AnswerPfinder]

It's been a minute, but I'm back! Ashore. Nice 'n' easy. MGWCC on deck.

[DrTom]

Can I conclude that attending conferences has driven you to this?

Where is that picture Bob - looks like it was out west?

It was at Bryce Canyon at dawn. This covid has put a big crimp in our traveling around. Our 2020 trip to Italy and France was wiped out and 2021 is not looking any better.

Thought it might be, Bryce was one of my favorite visits when I lived out there. So surreal and oh so beautiful. I have a picture hanging on my wall that is now quite faded (unfortunately pre-digital and I cannot find the negative).

Yes we also cancelled two trips to Italy (one in March and then because I was feeling lucky and re-booked, one in September). I think anything you book before the fall for Europe may be over-optimistic.

[Bob cruise director]

Good Saturday morning Muggles

i am starting this early as it will take time and the snow is falling. Typical NE weather. Last night we were predicted to get 3 inches and this morning we are predicted to get a foot.

Before I get started, with all the calculations on odds of getting a mug, I have a spreadsheet of all sorts of data and charts of our performance from week to week. Barbara Koehler kindly provided me with a lot of historic data going back to day 1 and I have built on that. If you want a copy of the file, PM me with an email address and I will send it out.

First a welcome to a lot of new muggles: Squirrelly718, Paul Olmsted, John Ellis, Kit, rtwitchell, and skyhaggis. This surge has put us over the 800 mark as we now have 805 who have declared themselves on the ship or shore at least once.

And we have 5 on the ship and 171 (now 172 with Will (AnswerPFiner) jumping to the shore.

Keeping Isaac busy for now are
Richard
Cynthia J
Jeremy
Olof
and Maine Marge

and on the increasingly crowded shore are
docison
Al
Wendy
kay
Beth A
Beth T
Beth C
Jean
hector
ky-mike
Chris
Mike H
michaelm
Les Y
C=64
Gman
Dannyvee
Amanada Hugginkiss
Jace54
Orsys
oldjudge
Laura
Joe Ross
LittleGood
Eric P
Dan A
bskptkl
Jim and Anita
Toby
Homer
tim1217
alan H
DB Miller
Tmart
paige11
Commodore
Andrew B
anita
Georgeall
boharr
spotter
Meg
Dow Jones
Powers2020
higgysue
nalugirl
Cindy
Lacangah
ladybird
Frank H
Tom Mueller
Mister Squawk
Schmeel
Paul D
Softie
Eric h
Jkj
dplass
streroto
Cap'n Rick
Blair
FKelly
Larrry
Susie G
ALS
dk letter
Franklin
Haari
mattythewsjpuzzler
Mary F
Barbara K
joequavis
sanmilton
JAQT
chbabee002
escapeartist
Omnibus
whimsy
scraps
edot
LizD
otlaolap
JoePickett
Inca
majordomotom
martin
Miki
Tina
Jacksull
mheverson
mbryant
skyhaggis
Bird Lives
stmv
Kas
flyingMoose
JennyByrd
damefox
steveb
joes
haedinHome
NDStegs
Abide
802puzzler
sharkicicles
Roberta
Flananigans
Moi
MikeM000
lbray53
tom S
mikeh
DrTom
Plymouth Rock
Peter L
fstadler
Geezer
Tripod
seans
Jenny rtwitchell
Brian M
Rita and George
Barry
M and M
Daniel G
bruto
Kit
John Ellis
jrdad
Dave C
ReB
yourpalsal
jimbo1
SewYoung
madhatter5
wb93
JimJim
ImOnToo
Cosmo
copperriver
Janet
ALECgator13
JeanneC
Billkatz
Paul Olmsted
joe
the Thurman8er
Janet P
JenGummy
bread-girl
KscX
RDaleHall
tony S
Trey and Marion
Grover
Wdunbar
Susan G
PQ63 Debbie
flamingbear
Big Mac
Mord
Squirrelly781
meowmiao71
hunkra
Gerry
Glyn
Jackie88
Ed S
and LLinNC

and AnswerPfinder

Good luck to all winning the mug and stay safe

[MaineMarge]

Ok Bob, now you can add me to the shore party. I guess throwing myself some shade by posting no meta luck helped me see the light. I had been dancing all around that method for quite awhile. Guess I’d better take dancing lessons.

[PJM]

Safely ashore. My fastest solve ever.

It's cold and windy on the beach. Calls for a hearty Fuller's London Porter.

Cheers everyone!

[hcbirker]

Good Saturday morning Muggles

i am starting this early as it will take time and the snow is falling. Typical NE weather. Last night we were predicted to get 3 inches and this morning we are predicted to get a foot.

Before I get started, with all the calculations on odds of getting a mug, I have a spreadsheet of all sorts of data and charts of our performance from week to week. Barbara Koehler kindly provided me with a lot of historic data going back to day 1 and I have built on that. If you want a copy of the file, PM me with an email address and I will send it out.

First a welcome to a lot of new muggles: Squirrelly718, Paul Olmsted, John Ellis, Kit, rtwitchell, and skyhaggis. This surge has put us over the 800 mark as we now have 805 who have declared themselves on the ship or shore at least once.

And we have 5 on the ship and 171 (now 172 with Will (AnswerPFiner) jumping to the shore.

I think you missed me. #155