"Grid Daring" - February 14, 2020

A place to discuss the weekly Wall Street Journal Crossword Puzzle Contest, starting every Thursday around 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. Please do not post any answers or hints before the contest deadline which is midnight Sunday Eastern time.
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boharr
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:57 am

Re: "Grid Daring" - February 14, 2020

#61

Post by boharr » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:43 am

rexthree wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:20 am
DrTom wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:06 am
Well I think I can see the mechanism and I also think I can get the letters. However, that is where this little train stops because I cannot seem to make anything intelligible out of them. Gonna be a long week-end I can tell, or I think I can.

RATS - I hate it when I get so far and then cannot get out of the woods - come HERE rabbit!!!
I'm in the exact same boat (so to speak) as you. Working hard for that as of yet "aha" moment. Frustrating to be so close!
Hope there's a little more room in that boat.

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Commodore
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:12 pm

#62

Post by Commodore » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:46 am

rexthree wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:20 am
DrTom wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:06 am
Well I think I can see the mechanism and I also think I can get the letters. However, that is where this little train stops because I cannot seem to make anything intelligible out of them. Gonna be a long week-end I can tell, or I think I can.

RATS - I hate it when I get so far and then cannot get out of the woods - come HERE rabbit!!!
I'm in the exact same boat (so to speak) as you. Working hard for that as of yet "aha" moment. Frustrating to be so close!
Aye, I like boats, too. In the very same.

Streroto
Posts: 81
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:24 pm

#63

Post by Streroto » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:56 am

And the Aha just hit me. So yes it all makes sense and I am now 100% on my answer posted yesterday. Whew. On to MGWCC...

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MarkL
Posts: 156
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:44 am

#64

Post by MarkL » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:13 am

ChrisKochmanski wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:01 pm
Fun to read of the drinking preferences here. For once I'll top you all. Valentine's Day dinner needed to be the day before this year. Delightful little place in Ann Arbor called Logan. Champagne toast, followed by the cocktails Alpini (with rye, scotch, and other stuff, to accompany a gnocchi puttanesca) and a Sazerac (to accompany a wild board bolognese), then a glass of Riesling (to play off the spicy Thai scallops) and a Spanish white (for a Mexican-tinged shrimp and grits), finally a little chocolate and raspberry tart-like thing -- all for less than $200 with tip. Half-plate sizes helped.

There are advantages to living in the frozen north. Cost of living (and drinking!) is low.

Oh, yes, and I got the puzzle just before leaving the house, so I didn't need to obsess on it over dinner.

Treat your sweetest well tomorrow!
Foodies Unite! That looks like a wonderful celebration. Here it will be Seared Sea Scallops & Pink Grapefruit - Brown Butter Sauce with homemade Spinach Pasta coupled with a nice Cava. Cheers!
Have Pint Glass, Will Travel!

SusieG
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:20 pm

#65

Post by SusieG » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:22 am

Well, I have to admit that I’m glad there are a few who are still on the boat. Count me among them! I saw the gimmick as I was solving, but I just can’t put it together.

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Cindy
Posts: 226
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:39 pm
Location: Matthews

#66

Post by Cindy » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:28 am

MarkL wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:13 am
ChrisKochmanski wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:01 pm
Fun to read of the drinking preferences here. For once I'll top you all. Valentine's Day dinner needed to be the day before this year. Delightful little place in Ann Arbor called Logan. Champagne toast, followed by the cocktails Alpini (with rye, scotch, and other stuff, to accompany a gnocchi puttanesca) and a Sazerac (to accompany a wild board bolognese), then a glass of Riesling (to play off the spicy Thai scallops) and a Spanish white (for a Mexican-tinged shrimp and grits), finally a little chocolate and raspberry tart-like thing -- all for less than $200 with tip. Half-plate sizes helped.

There are advantages to living in the frozen north. Cost of living (and drinking!) is low.

Oh, yes, and I got the puzzle just before leaving the house, so I didn't need to obsess on it over dinner.

Treat your sweetest well tomorrow!
Foodies Unite! That looks like a wonderful celebration. Here it will be Seared Sea Scallops & Pink Grapefruit - Brown Butter Sauce with homemade Spinach Pasta coupled with a nice Cava. Cheers!
Yes! Our menu with friends

Heart shaped goat cheese, roasted cherry tomato and basil tart

Radicchio and little gem lettuce salad with crispy artichokes and walnut anchovy vinaigrette

Seared salmon with Shrimp St Thomas Sauce

Roasted asparagus

Chocolate peanut butter cake with fresh raspberries

Any wine we choose to drink

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Janet P
Posts: 111
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:29 pm
Location: Cleveland Ohio

#67

Post by Janet P » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:53 am

Set 'em up, Isaac! I see a mechanism but cannot make any sense of it so it is likely not the correct one...
“For myself, I am an optimist. It does not seem much use being anything else...”
― Winston Churchill, The Lord Mayor's Banquet, 9 November 1954

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Deb F
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:02 pm
Location: Hilton Head Island

#68

Post by Deb F » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:02 am

Oh, Matt. You tried luring me away with a red herring or two but I managed to focus. On shore. Hope all you Muggles enjoy your Valentine's Day!❤️

pddigi
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:57 pm

#69

Post by pddigi » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:05 am

I beat Dom, who hasn't started the grid yet. I know my answer is correct, but to my mind, I can justify only 8 of the 10 letters. Will await the full explanation, or for Dom to point out whatever it is I am missing.

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BrianMac
Site Admin
Posts: 300
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:45 pm
Location: Connecticut

#70

Post by BrianMac » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am

yourpalsal wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am
I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?

Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!

ErikThor
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:35 pm

#71

Post by ErikThor » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:26 am

Safely ashore this morning! Is it too early for beer and pancakes?

steveb
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:25 pm
Location: Menlo Park, CA

#72

Post by steveb » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:31 am

Done and done. Nice puzzle, and an amusing diversion on a long flight.

steveb
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:25 pm
Location: Menlo Park, CA

#73

Post by steveb » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 am

BrianMac wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am
yourpalsal wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am
I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?

Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.

steveb
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:25 pm
Location: Menlo Park, CA

#74

Post by steveb » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:38 am

Joe Ross wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:19 pm
Inca wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:10 pm
Does anyone do the puzzle online with Chrome browser running in Windows 10? The puzzle window doesn't come up for me or when it does I can't enter the letters. I have no problem if I use Firefox.
Interesting. I can't use Firefox, my preferred browser, but it works in Edge.
I use Chrome on Windows 10, no problem. Sometimes I use Firefox on a Mac, too.

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tim1217
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

#75

Post by tim1217 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:45 am

Count me on the boat with those that have a first part, and a reasonable ‘guess’ as to the second part (that makes a 10-letter entertainment category), but no clue how to justify that second part (even with the previous suggestions). So therefore definitely not 100%.

On the plus side, new signature and avatar!!!!
“My get up and go musta got up and went" - Steven Tyler

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Jazzvibist
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:31 pm
Location: West Bend, WI

#76

Post by Jazzvibist » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am

steveb wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 am
BrianMac wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am
yourpalsal wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am
I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?

Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.
Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?

And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?

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Bob cruise director
Cruise Director
Posts: 856
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:38 pm

#77

Post by Bob cruise director » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:08 am

cashk wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:52 pm
I think I'm on shore, for the first time ever, but

I think I got first half of answer correct as the meta is obvious, but am I supposed to make an obvious guess for second half of answer, or is there a way to solve the second half with meta?
Welcome to the clan. Hope to see you often and good luck winning the mug
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

DBMiller
Posts: 97
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:59 pm

#78

Post by DBMiller » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:17 am

Jazzvibist wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am
Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?
Roughly. Quick (to make it easy) assumptions. 1000 correct submissions each week, and this has been running for 128 weeks.

So .999 chance of not getting picked each week. Raised to the power of 128, means roughly 88% won't get picked. leaving 12% that you would.

Submitting only twice and winning both times? .001^2 = one in a million chance of it happening (Using the same assumption of 1000 correct answers.

Edited to correct wrong answer for part 2
Last edited by DBMiller on Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Bob cruise director
Cruise Director
Posts: 856
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:38 pm

#79

Post by Bob cruise director » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:21 am

Cindy wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:28 am
MarkL wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:13 am
ChrisKochmanski wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:01 pm
Fun to read of the drinking preferences here. For once I'll top you all. Valentine's Day dinner needed to be the day before this year. Delightful little place in Ann Arbor called Logan. Champagne toast, followed by the cocktails Alpini (with rye, scotch, and other stuff, to accompany a gnocchi puttanesca) and a Sazerac (to accompany a wild board bolognese), then a glass of Riesling (to play off the spicy Thai scallops) and a Spanish white (for a Mexican-tinged shrimp and grits), finally a little chocolate and raspberry tart-like thing -- all for less than $200 with tip. Half-plate sizes helped.

There are advantages to living in the frozen north. Cost of living (and drinking!) is low.

Oh, yes, and I got the puzzle just before leaving the house, so I didn't need to obsess on it over dinner.

Treat your sweetest well tomorrow!
Foodies Unite! That looks like a wonderful celebration. Here it will be Seared Sea Scallops & Pink Grapefruit - Brown Butter Sauce with homemade Spinach Pasta coupled with a nice Cava. Cheers!
Yes! Our menu with friends

Heart shaped goat cheese, roasted cherry tomato and basil tart

Radicchio and little gem lettuce salad with crispy artichokes and walnut anchovy vinaigrette

Seared salmon with Shrimp St Thomas Sauce

Roasted asparagus

Chocolate peanut butter cake with fresh raspberries

Any wine we choose to drink
What time is dinner? sounds delicious
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

steveb
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:25 pm
Location: Menlo Park, CA

#80

Post by steveb » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:27 am

Jazzvibist wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am
steveb wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 am
BrianMac wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am



Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.
Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?

And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
The true odds depend on how many correct submissions there are, which varies every week. But let's assume a constant of 500/week. The puzzles have been going on for about 4 1/2 years now, so that would be about 235 puzzles, give or take a few.

Under these assumptions, the perfect submitter's odds of not winning any given week are 499/500. The odds of not winning every week would be 499/500 to the 235th power. That is (quick computation in Excel) ... about 62.5%. So the perfect submitter's odds of winning at least once would be 1 minus that, or about 37.5%. If you want to assume a higher number of correct submissions per week, then the odds are longer.

Using the same assumption of 500 correct submissions/week, the person who only submits twice has a 1/500 squared chance of winning both, or 1 in 250,000. If you assume 1000 correct submissions/week, then your chance of winning both of your only two submissions would be one in a million.

To answer the second question: I want to win the mug, not buy it. There is meaning and purpose in the struggle!

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