Hope there's a little more room in that boat.rexthree wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:20 amI'm in the exact same boat (so to speak) as you. Working hard for that as of yet "aha" moment. Frustrating to be so close!DrTom wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:06 am Well I think I can see the mechanism and I also think I can get the letters. However, that is where this little train stops because I cannot seem to make anything intelligible out of them. Gonna be a long week-end I can tell, or I think I can.
RATS - I hate it when I get so far and then cannot get out of the woods - come HERE rabbit!!!
"Grid Daring" - February 14, 2020
- boharr
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- Commodore
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Aye, I like boats, too. In the very same.rexthree wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:20 amI'm in the exact same boat (so to speak) as you. Working hard for that as of yet "aha" moment. Frustrating to be so close!DrTom wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:06 am Well I think I can see the mechanism and I also think I can get the letters. However, that is where this little train stops because I cannot seem to make anything intelligible out of them. Gonna be a long week-end I can tell, or I think I can.
RATS - I hate it when I get so far and then cannot get out of the woods - come HERE rabbit!!!
- Streroto
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And the Aha just hit me. So yes it all makes sense and I am now 100% on my answer posted yesterday. Whew. On to MGWCC...
- MarkL
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- Location: Tampa Bay, FL
Foodies Unite! That looks like a wonderful celebration. Here it will be Seared Sea Scallops & Pink Grapefruit - Brown Butter Sauce with homemade Spinach Pasta coupled with a nice Cava. Cheers!ChrisKochmanski wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:01 pm Fun to read of the drinking preferences here. For once I'll top you all. Valentine's Day dinner needed to be the day before this year. Delightful little place in Ann Arbor called Logan. Champagne toast, followed by the cocktails Alpini (with rye, scotch, and other stuff, to accompany a gnocchi puttanesca) and a Sazerac (to accompany a wild board bolognese), then a glass of Riesling (to play off the spicy Thai scallops) and a Spanish white (for a Mexican-tinged shrimp and grits), finally a little chocolate and raspberry tart-like thing -- all for less than $200 with tip. Half-plate sizes helped.
There are advantages to living in the frozen north. Cost of living (and drinking!) is low.
Oh, yes, and I got the puzzle just before leaving the house, so I didn't need to obsess on it over dinner.
Treat your sweetest well tomorrow!
'tis... A lovely day for a Guinness!
- SusieG
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Well, I have to admit that I’m glad there are a few who are still on the boat. Count me among them! I saw the gimmick as I was solving, but I just can’t put it together.
- Cindy
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- Location: Matthews
Yes! Our menu with friendsMarkL wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:13 amFoodies Unite! That looks like a wonderful celebration. Here it will be Seared Sea Scallops & Pink Grapefruit - Brown Butter Sauce with homemade Spinach Pasta coupled with a nice Cava. Cheers!ChrisKochmanski wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:01 pm Fun to read of the drinking preferences here. For once I'll top you all. Valentine's Day dinner needed to be the day before this year. Delightful little place in Ann Arbor called Logan. Champagne toast, followed by the cocktails Alpini (with rye, scotch, and other stuff, to accompany a gnocchi puttanesca) and a Sazerac (to accompany a wild board bolognese), then a glass of Riesling (to play off the spicy Thai scallops) and a Spanish white (for a Mexican-tinged shrimp and grits), finally a little chocolate and raspberry tart-like thing -- all for less than $200 with tip. Half-plate sizes helped.
There are advantages to living in the frozen north. Cost of living (and drinking!) is low.
Oh, yes, and I got the puzzle just before leaving the house, so I didn't need to obsess on it over dinner.
Treat your sweetest well tomorrow!
Heart shaped goat cheese, roasted cherry tomato and basil tart
Radicchio and little gem lettuce salad with crispy artichokes and walnut anchovy vinaigrette
Seared salmon with Shrimp St Thomas Sauce
Roasted asparagus
Chocolate peanut butter cake with fresh raspberries
Any wine we choose to drink
- Janet P
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Set 'em up, Isaac! I see a mechanism but cannot make any sense of it so it is likely not the correct one...
- Deb F
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Oh, Matt. You tried luring me away with a red herring or two but I managed to focus. On shore. Hope all you Muggles enjoy your Valentine's Day!
- pddigi
- Posts: 154
- Joined: Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:57 pm
I beat Dom, who hasn't started the grid yet. I know my answer is correct, but to my mind, I can justify only 8 of the 10 letters. Will await the full explanation, or for Dom to point out whatever it is I am missing.
- BrianMac
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yourpalsal wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
Nice shofar!
We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
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Safely ashore this morning! Is it too early for beer and pancakes?
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- Location: Silicon Valley, CA
Done and done. Nice puzzle, and an amusing diversion on a long flight.
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Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.BrianMac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 amyourpalsal wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
Nice shofar!
We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
- tim1217
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- Location: Small Town America
Count me on the boat with those that have a first part, and a reasonable ‘guess’ as to the second part (that makes a 10-letter entertainment category), but no clue how to justify that second part (even with the previous suggestions). So therefore definitely not 100%.
On the plus side, new signature and avatar!!!!
On the plus side, new signature and avatar!!!!
- Jazzvibist
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- Location: Los Angeles, CA (temp)
Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 amSince I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.BrianMac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 amyourpalsal wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
Nice shofar!
We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
- Bob cruise director
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Welcome to the clan. Hope to see you often and good luck winning the mug
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director
Cruise Director
- DBMiller
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Roughly. Quick (to make it easy) assumptions. 1000 correct submissions each week, and this has been running for 128 weeks.Jazzvibist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?
So .999 chance of not getting picked each week. Raised to the power of 128, means roughly 88% won't get picked. leaving 12% that you would.
Submitting only twice and winning both times? .001^2 = one in a million chance of it happening (Using the same assumption of 1000 correct answers.
Edited to correct wrong answer for part 2
Last edited by DBMiller on Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If I'm around, I am willing to join the Muggle Zoom room at other times to lend a hand to those in need.
- Bob cruise director
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What time is dinner? sounds deliciousCindy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:28 amYes! Our menu with friendsMarkL wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:13 amFoodies Unite! That looks like a wonderful celebration. Here it will be Seared Sea Scallops & Pink Grapefruit - Brown Butter Sauce with homemade Spinach Pasta coupled with a nice Cava. Cheers!ChrisKochmanski wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:01 pm Fun to read of the drinking preferences here. For once I'll top you all. Valentine's Day dinner needed to be the day before this year. Delightful little place in Ann Arbor called Logan. Champagne toast, followed by the cocktails Alpini (with rye, scotch, and other stuff, to accompany a gnocchi puttanesca) and a Sazerac (to accompany a wild board bolognese), then a glass of Riesling (to play off the spicy Thai scallops) and a Spanish white (for a Mexican-tinged shrimp and grits), finally a little chocolate and raspberry tart-like thing -- all for less than $200 with tip. Half-plate sizes helped.
There are advantages to living in the frozen north. Cost of living (and drinking!) is low.
Oh, yes, and I got the puzzle just before leaving the house, so I didn't need to obsess on it over dinner.
Treat your sweetest well tomorrow!
Heart shaped goat cheese, roasted cherry tomato and basil tart
Radicchio and little gem lettuce salad with crispy artichokes and walnut anchovy vinaigrette
Seared salmon with Shrimp St Thomas Sauce
Roasted asparagus
Chocolate peanut butter cake with fresh raspberries
Any wine we choose to drink
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director
Cruise Director
-
- Posts: 383
- Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:25 pm
- Location: Silicon Valley, CA
The true odds depend on how many correct submissions there are, which varies every week. But let's assume a constant of 500/week. The puzzles have been going on for about 4 1/2 years now, so that would be about 235 puzzles, give or take a few.Jazzvibist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 amMathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 amSince I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.BrianMac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am
Nice shofar!
We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
Under these assumptions, the perfect submitter's odds of not winning any given week are 499/500. The odds of not winning every week would be 499/500 to the 235th power. That is (quick computation in Excel) ... about 62.5%. So the perfect submitter's odds of winning at least once would be 1 minus that, or about 37.5%. If you want to assume a higher number of correct submissions per week, then the odds are longer.
Using the same assumption of 500 correct submissions/week, the person who only submits twice has a 1/500 squared chance of winning both, or 1 in 250,000. If you assume 1000 correct submissions/week, then your chance of winning both of your only two submissions would be one in a million.
To answer the second question: I want to win the mug, not buy it. There is meaning and purpose in the struggle!