XWord Muggles Forum

steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:27 am

Jazzvibist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am

steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 am

Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.

Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?

And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?

The true odds depend on how many correct submissions there are, which varies every week. But let's assume a constant of 500/week. The puzzles have been going on for about 4 1/2 years now, so that would be about 235 puzzles, give or take a few.

Under these assumptions, the perfect submitter's odds of not winning any given week are 499/500. The odds of not winning every week would be 499/500 to the 235th power. That is (quick computation in Excel) ... about 62.5%. So the perfect submitter's odds of winning at least once would be 1 minus that, or about 37.5%. If you want to assume a higher number of correct submissions per week, then the odds are longer.

Using the same assumption of 500 correct submissions/week, the person who only submits twice has a 1/500 squared chance of winning both, or 1 in 250,000. If you assume 1000 correct submissions/week, then your chance of winning both of your only two submissions would be one in a million.

To answer the second question: I want to win the mug, not buy it. There is meaning and purpose in the struggle!

Jazzvibist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am

steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 am

BrianMac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am


Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!

Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.

Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?

And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?

Jazzvibist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:56 am ...
As to my first question, Steve, thanks for your elegant explanation. My very naive approach, using your 500 correct submissions example, would previously have been that because the odds of not winning each week would always be 499/500, the chances for failure or success would be identical regardless of the number of submissions.

As to my second question, while i completely get your response and in many ways am on the same page, my ego would be much more gratified with a record of 147 correct submissions and no mug than with far fewer correct submissions but the good luck to have won a mug. That’s the only reason I made my suggestion that significant success could at least entitle someone to buy a mug (I could have suggested that anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions get a free mug but I knew better). Case closed.

boharr wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:43 am

rexthree wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:20 am

DrTom wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:06 am Well I think I can see the mechanism and I also think I can get the letters. However, that is where this little train stops because I cannot seem to make anything intelligible out of them. Gonna be a long week-end I can tell, or I think I can.

RATS - I hate it when I get so far and then cannot get out of the woods - come HERE rabbit!!!

I'm in the exact same boat (so to speak) as you. Working hard for that as of yet "aha" moment. Frustrating to be so close!

Hope there's a little more room in that boat.

Softie wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:38 pm

Jazzvibist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:56 am ...
As to my first question, Steve, thanks for your elegant explanation. My very naive approach, using your 500 correct submissions example, would previously have been that because the odds of not winning each week would always be 499/500, the chances for failure or success would be identical regardless of the number of submissions.

As to my second question, while i completely get your response and in many ways am on the same page, my ego would be much more gratified with a record of 147 correct submissions and no mug than with far fewer correct submissions but the good luck to have won a mug. That’s the only reason I made my suggestion that significant success could at least entitle someone to buy a mug (I could have suggested that anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions get a free mug but I knew better). Case closed.

Two notes:
- I've been keeping track of the weekly results since I started submitting regularly last February. The average number of correct answers over the last year has been a hair over 1000, so the odds are quite a bit longer than you estimated
- As to your desire to reward skill, the harder puzzles naturally have fewer correct submissions, so the talented individuals who get those have comparatively better odds beyond just more entries in the drawing. The infamous YMA SUMAC had fewer than 100 correct submissions, so the odds from that puzzle alone were over 1%. The naive estimate of equal chance each week would give a perfect submitter a 4.8% chance at a mug in the past year. The actual odds for a perfect submitter were 7.5%. For paragons of mediocrity such as myself (I got 31 of the last 52), my chances were 3.2%

steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:26 pm Thanks for that additional information. If there were exactly 1000 correct submissions each week, then someone who submitted the correct answer 235 weeks in a row would have a 79% chance of coming away empty-handed.

BrianMac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am

yourpalsal wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?

Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!

Softie wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:39 pm

steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:26 pm Thanks for that additional information. If there were exactly 1000 correct submissions each week, then someone who submitted the correct answer 235 weeks in a row would have a 79% chance of coming away empty-handed.

Additional perspective: if the distribution of puzzle difficulty is consistent year to year, one would have to submit correct answers to every single puzzle for NINE YEARS before it would be more likely than not that they would have won a mug.

steveb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:33 am

BrianMac wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am

yourpalsal wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?

Nice shofar!

We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!

Since I'm the kind of nerd who keeps track of such things, I can tell you that this week is my 147th correct submission (yeah, I've had a few wrong ones, too). No mug yet.