Re: "Grid Daring" - February 14, 2020
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:01 pm
Solved and Submitted. On Shore !
A place to discuss the WSJ Weekly Crossword Contest and other "meta"-style crosswords
https://www.xword-muggles.com/
I have been playing since 2017, and by my count have 128 correct submissions (including this week, which was pretty straightforward), and not a sniff of the mug. At this point I pretty much assume it will never happen.BrianMac wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 amWe have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!yourpalsal wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
I love this blog; its members include people who count things! (Did you know that Consumer Reports has a Person In Charge of Counting Things? He [or she] is the one who watches the decrease in the number of M&Ms in a bag, and the decrease in the number of paper towels in a roll, etc.)BarbaraK wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 10:48 pmOoh, numbers! You want to talk about numbers?! OK, if you insist:)Jazzvibist wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am
Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?
And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
I have the number of correct answers each week since April 29, 2016. (WSJ changed the comment system that week, and all previous comments were lost, so when I started tracking it, I couldn't go back farther than that.) If you got every answer correct for those 198 weeks, you had a 31.5% chance of winning a mug.
The average number of correct answers is 817, but that has been increasing over time - 635 in 2016 to 1033 last year.
There were 30 contests before my spreadsheet starts, so if you want to account for them, you'd have to make some guess at the numbers and settle for an approximation. Taking that 2016 average for each of the missing 30 weeks, your odds go up to 34.7%
I'm pretty sure WSJ does not keep any data from previous weeks.
Some other contests do though - MGWCC and MMMM for two. MGWCC gives prizes based on yearly success rates, and MMMM has a yearly prize that is random but weighted by the number and difficulty of puzzles solved.
My husband won only about 3 months after we started playing, which falsely led me to believe winning a mug was common! (And I introduced him to the puzzle so I'm a bit salty about the whole ordeal) it was a pretty memorable mug win since he got the email the day we hiked down and out of the Grand Canyon... I think he may have been more awed by the mug winyourpalsal wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
BarbaraBarbaraK wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 10:48 pmOoh, numbers! You want to talk about numbers?! OK, if you insist:)Jazzvibist wrote: βFri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am
Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?
And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
I have the number of correct answers each week since April 29, 2016. (WSJ changed the comment system that week, and all previous comments were lost, so when I started tracking it, I couldn't go back farther than that.) If you got every answer correct for those 198 weeks, you had a 31.5% chance of winning a mug.
The average number of correct answers is 817, but that has been increasing over time - 635 in 2016 to 1033 last year.
There were 30 contests before my spreadsheet starts, so if you want to account for them, you'd have to make some guess at the numbers and settle for an approximation. Taking that 2016 average for each of the missing 30 weeks, your odds go up to 34.7%
I'm pretty sure WSJ does not keep any data from previous weeks.
Some other contests do though - MGWCC and MMMM for two. MGWCC gives prizes based on yearly success rates, and MMMM has a yearly prize that is random but weighted by the number and difficulty of puzzles solved.
Welcome to our happy little group. Always great to have another muggle. Good luck winning the elusive WSJ mug
The problem is that you are so fast that the WSJ computer can't keep up with you so they miss you when they have the drawing for the mug.Al Sisti wrote: βSat Feb 15, 2020 1:41 pm I started in November 2015 ("SCOTTIE PIPPEN") and I'm 203/208. Last miss was PAGEANT in Dec 2017. There is an asterisk though... when I was out of commission and delirious for days with a still-unknown "viral thing" in July 2019 and spaced out that there was even a puzzle, my Muggle buddies on this forum gave me a pass -- don't count as a solve or a miss -- so with that (and my thanks!) my streak is now 110. And still no mug.