"Grid Daring" - February 14, 2020

A place to discuss the weekly Wall Street Journal Crossword Puzzle Contest, starting every Thursday around 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. Please do not post any answers or hints before the contest deadline which is midnight Sunday Eastern time.
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Dow Jones
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu May 09, 2019 11:02 pm
Location: Yakima, WA

Re: "Grid Daring" - February 14, 2020

#121

Post by Dow Jones » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:01 pm

Solved and Submitted. On Shore !

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asechres
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:50 pm

#122

Post by asechres » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:19 am

Ashore.

markhr
Posts: 42
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:56 pm

#123

Post by markhr » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:47 am

BrianMac wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:11 am
yourpalsal wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am
I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
We have about 10 winners who have self-identified in this thread: WSJ Mug Winners Roll Call! (including one lucky player who won it twice!). There are other members who have won it but not posted in that thread, so the total is unknown. I won mine after about a year of regular playing. Some win it in less time and some in more. Welcome to the forum and good luck!
I have been playing since 2017, and by my count have 128 correct submissions (including this week, which was pretty straightforward), and not a sniff of the mug. At this point I pretty much assume it will never happen.

On a side note, I have learned that January 24 was National Beer Can Appreciation Day. Although I am more of a bottle man myself, I will belatedly lift a can in salute to our aluminum friends. Feel free to celebrate as you see fit.

MaineMarge
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:57 pm

#124

Post by MaineMarge » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:33 am

Ashore. Fun hard grid and another good creative meta. Not much question about a Muggle’s favorite 10 letter entertainment category, is there? 😉

Sidney S
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:33 am

#125

Post by Sidney S » Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:56 am

I haven't done one of these in a few months! I'm on shore!

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Bob cruise director
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Location: any golf course that will take my money

#126

Post by Bob cruise director » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:04 am

Sidney S wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:56 am
I haven't done one of these in a few months! I'm on shore!
Welcome back.
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

Joe
Posts: 64
Joined: Sat May 11, 2019 12:45 pm

#127

Post by Joe » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:16 am

Safely ashore. For some reason, this one was a bit elusive.

jag
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:02 am

#128

Post by jag » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:50 am

On shore. Took a (small) leap of faith for the last step. Not sure if that was intentional by Matt, or perhaps I've just missed the guidance in the puzzle. Either way, I am 100% on shore! I enjoyed this puzzle's construction!

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CPJohnson
Posts: 201
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:38 pm
Location: Kingsport, TN

#129

Post by CPJohnson » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:56 am

BarbaraK wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:48 pm
Jazzvibist wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am

Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?

And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
Ooh, numbers! You want to talk about numbers?! OK, if you insist:)

I have the number of correct answers each week since April 29, 2016. (WSJ changed the comment system that week, and all previous comments were lost, so when I started tracking it, I couldn't go back farther than that.) If you got every answer correct for those 198 weeks, you had a 31.5% chance of winning a mug.

The average number of correct answers is 817, but that has been increasing over time - 635 in 2016 to 1033 last year.

There were 30 contests before my spreadsheet starts, so if you want to account for them, you'd have to make some guess at the numbers and settle for an approximation. Taking that 2016 average for each of the missing 30 weeks, your odds go up to 34.7%

I'm pretty sure WSJ does not keep any data from previous weeks.

Some other contests do though - MGWCC and MMMM for two. MGWCC gives prizes based on yearly success rates, and MMMM has a yearly prize that is random but weighted by the number and difficulty of puzzles solved.
I love this blog; its members include people who count things! (Did you know that Consumer Reports has a Person In Charge of Counting Things? He [or she] is the one who watches the decrease in the number of M&Ms in a bag, and the decrease in the number of paper towels in a roll, etc.)

Ksoav
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:34 pm

#130

Post by Ksoav » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:00 am

On shore!

Ksoav
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:34 pm

#131

Post by Ksoav » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:09 am

yourpalsal wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:53 am
I'm curious how many folks on this chat have won the mug, and how many years of playing it took?
My husband won only about 3 months after we started playing, which falsely led me to believe winning a mug was common! (And I introduced him to the puzzle so I'm a bit salty about the whole ordeal) it was a pretty memorable mug win since he got the email the day we hiked down and out of the Grand Canyon... I think he may have been more awed by the mug win ;)

Now we share the mug, and whoever uses it on Saturday morning is responsible for cracking the meta!

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MajordomoTom
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Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:09 am
Location: St. Louis, MO

#132

Post by MajordomoTom » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:26 am

that was a pretty hard nudge, I'm going to confer with Isaac and see if I can settle my tab.
"Lots of planets have a North", the Ninth Doctor.

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tim1217
Posts: 245
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm
Location: Small Town America

#133

Post by tim1217 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:16 am

Count me on shore but highly unsatisfied. I had the answer Thursday but kept looking for something more. As Peggy Lee said; “Is that all there is?”
"GET OFF MY LAWN!".
Walt Kowalski, Gran Torino

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Bob cruise director
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Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:38 pm
Location: any golf course that will take my money

#134

Post by Bob cruise director » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:05 pm

Good Saturday morning.

First a warm welcome to our two newest muggles: cashk and John Wallace over on the WSJ comments page.

We have had a slow but steady progression to shore and we now have 13 on the ship and 74 on the shore. As several have noted, and I agree with them if I have the right answer, there are a couple of loose ends but that will be a discussion for Monday

Keeping Isaac company without the coronavirus are:
Richard
Anita
DrTom
Kay
rexthree
seans
boharr
SusieG
Commodore
FrankH
sharkicicles
SewYoung
and Diane Armstrong

And on the shore or a deserted isle are
anjhinz
Frankie
Leslie
Al
Wendy
Scott M
Les
Hector
Tina
Eric P
Glyn
Brian M
DBMiller
Cindy
damefox
Beth T
docison
Mike H
Tmart
ky-mike
Toby
Barbara K
Inca
Meg
oldjudge
Heidi
Chris
Softie
cashk
Tom Wi
scooby
Beth A
Peter L
yourpalsal
Geoduck
streroto
Julie O
Jazzvibist
Mark L
Paul D
Steve B
Deb F
ErikThor
Juliet
CallMeShane
NuYear68
the Thurman8er
Trey and Marion
Mary CC
Homer
RDaleHall
dplass
BillKatz
Lucas
Laura M
Ed S
joequavis
Jacksull
LaceyK
diplomat
moi
MaineMarge
Cynthia J
Beth A
Jennifer
Burd
asechres
Sidney S
Ksoav
jag
Matthew B
John Wallace
MajorDomoTom
and tim1217

Good luck to all winning the mug
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

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Bob cruise director
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Location: any golf course that will take my money

#135

Post by Bob cruise director » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:30 pm

BarbaraK wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:48 pm
Jazzvibist wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 am

Mathematicians: Out of curiosity, roughly what are the odds that (a) someone could have a 100% correct submission record from the inception of this contest and never have won a mug compared to (b) the odds that someone could submit only two correctly solved metas and win a mug each time?

And again, out of curiosity, because the WSJ mug is such a coveted trophy, what do Muggles think about a possible alternate path that rewards ability rather than rewarding pure luck? For example, assuming that WSJ keeps submission records by submitter (big presumption), what about the idea of allowing anyone with 100 or more documented correct submissions to be able to buy one?
Ooh, numbers! You want to talk about numbers?! OK, if you insist:)

I have the number of correct answers each week since April 29, 2016. (WSJ changed the comment system that week, and all previous comments were lost, so when I started tracking it, I couldn't go back farther than that.) If you got every answer correct for those 198 weeks, you had a 31.5% chance of winning a mug.

The average number of correct answers is 817, but that has been increasing over time - 635 in 2016 to 1033 last year.

There were 30 contests before my spreadsheet starts, so if you want to account for them, you'd have to make some guess at the numbers and settle for an approximation. Taking that 2016 average for each of the missing 30 weeks, your odds go up to 34.7%

I'm pretty sure WSJ does not keep any data from previous weeks.

Some other contests do though - MGWCC and MMMM for two. MGWCC gives prizes based on yearly success rates, and MMMM has a yearly prize that is random but weighted by the number and difficulty of puzzles solved.
Barbara
My mental average is that our shore party is about 10% of the number of correct answers on a week by week basis.

If we want exact numbers, we can add the week by week number of correct answers that you have to the week by week number of muggles on shore that I have.
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

Libbypibby
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:32 am

#136

Post by Libbypibby » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:35 pm

My first reply to the blog. On shore!

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Bob cruise director
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Location: any golf course that will take my money

#137

Post by Bob cruise director » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:05 pm

Libbypibby wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:35 pm
My first reply to the blog. On shore!
Welcome to our happy little group. Always great to have another muggle. Good luck winning the elusive WSJ mug
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

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spotter
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: SLO, CA

#138

Post by spotter » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:11 pm

On shore. Late start but a pretty quick solve.

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Al Sisti
Posts: 871
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:28 pm
Location: Whitesboro NY

#139

Post by Al Sisti » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:41 pm

I started in November 2015 ("SCOTTIE PIPPEN") and I'm 203/208. Last miss was PAGEANT in Dec 2017. There is an asterisk though... when I was out of commission and delirious for days with a still-unknown "viral thing" in July 2019 and spaced out that there was even a puzzle, my Muggle buddies on this forum gave me a pass -- don't count as a solve or a miss -- so with that (and my thanks!) my streak is now 110. And still no mug.

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Bob cruise director
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Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:38 pm
Location: any golf course that will take my money

#140

Post by Bob cruise director » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:52 pm

Al Sisti wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:41 pm
I started in November 2015 ("SCOTTIE PIPPEN") and I'm 203/208. Last miss was PAGEANT in Dec 2017. There is an asterisk though... when I was out of commission and delirious for days with a still-unknown "viral thing" in July 2019 and spaced out that there was even a puzzle, my Muggle buddies on this forum gave me a pass -- don't count as a solve or a miss -- so with that (and my thanks!) my streak is now 110. And still no mug.
The problem is that you are so fast that the WSJ computer can't keep up with you so they miss you when they have the drawing for the mug.

LOL
Bob Stevens
Cruise Director

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